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Archive => Valkyria 9x server (Merged with Dragon x15) => Obsolete => General => Topic started by: panic on June 14, 2010, 07:07:58 PM

Title: ihihi +15
Post by: panic on June 14, 2010, 07:07:58 PM
(http://i50.tinypic.com/2v1tdt4.jpg)
(http://i45.tinypic.com/8x21cy.jpg)
ihihi no balls :)
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: CTEBAH on June 14, 2010, 07:10:25 PM
nice :P
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: panic on June 14, 2010, 07:12:02 PM
http://i45.tinypic.com/8x21cy.jpg

same as i did on 5x with draco+15 :))
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: Thrinku on June 14, 2010, 07:12:55 PM
is there 0,001% chance? :D gz nab ;p
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: ChillyWilly on June 14, 2010, 07:24:34 PM
Quote from: Bav3 on June 14, 2010, 07:20:38 PM
there is always 1/3 to sucess

ah yes, but what is the chance of getting that favorable 1/3 that many times in succession? 
too bad it broke
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: Thrinku on June 14, 2010, 07:27:17 PM
Quote from: Bav3 on June 14, 2010, 07:20:38 PM
there is always 1/3 to sucess
on arena i has done demon splinters from 0 to 15 later broke it to +16 but i has know there is chance like 0,0001% ;D
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: LegolasIII on June 15, 2010, 12:30:20 AM


0,3^13=>  0,00001594323%  for +16

if its true that the chance to enchant is 30%
which i doubt.. because the chance to make +15 is also pretty small (0,000000531441%) aka almost impossible

cheers~
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: Agril on June 15, 2010, 12:33:39 AM
Bav study the probability xD

(1/3)^15 for this case :O

For noob xD

Or maybe i'm noob xD

:D


Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: LegolasIII on June 15, 2010, 12:35:46 AM
it seems so ^^

little hint.. +3 is save  ;)
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: Thrinku on June 15, 2010, 01:51:45 AM
Quote from: Bav3 on June 15, 2010, 12:07:11 AM
chance is always 1/3 to sucess
no mater if u enchant +4 or +20
only diferent is if u enchant in row from 3-16 then chance is 0.0001% to sucess
but i doubt someone make this in row
y bro but i was say about arena and there is rly 0,0001 chance to +16 or smaller :D
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: Dhart on June 15, 2010, 01:59:09 AM
Quote from: LegolasIII on June 15, 2010, 12:30:20 AM
the chance is much smaller

0,3^13=>  0,0000001594323%  for +16

if its true that the chance to enchant is 30%
which i doubt.. because the chance to make +15 is also pretty small (0,000000531441%) aka almost impossible

cheers~
Amh ... I'm sorry but this argument doesn't fill the topic:D
Anytime you enchant , doesnt matter how many times you alredy have done , it is 1/3 to succesfull , so for the theory of relativity it doesnt really matter you many weapons you alredy broke/enchanted , it'll still be 1/3 :P
For sure , breaking a weapon before you enchant a new one , make  the possibilities of successfull grow up
But still , it is too much relative to rapresent it just with a trivial formula :P , if we follow tightly math's formula it would be impossible to enchant anything far from +3 :P
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: LegolasIII on June 15, 2010, 02:08:06 AM
so which part in your opinion is wrong here? its pure math!

if something has a 30% chance to success, the chance that it does 13 times in a row is 0,3 ^ 13 if you want it or not, there is nothing to argument about :D
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: undertaker22 on June 15, 2010, 07:37:41 AM
was that the homo=acum+8 i sold u o.O
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: loXol on June 15, 2010, 09:14:29 AM
Quote from: LegolasIII on June 15, 2010, 02:08:06 AM
so which part in your opinion is wrong here? its pure math!

if something has a 30% chance to success, the chance that it does 13 times in a row is 0,3 ^ 13 if you want it or not, there is nothing to argument about :D

if something has 1/3 to happen, its always 1/3
so the chance that happen 13 times in a row is 30% chance.....
because probability are not linked in this case....
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: Dhart on June 15, 2010, 12:38:01 PM
Quote from: loXol on June 15, 2010, 09:14:29 AM
if something has 1/3 to happen, its always 1/3
so the chance that happen 13 times in a row is 30% chance.....
because probability are not linked in this case....
Yep , that's what I wanted to point out .
If that formula was used in this case , how could it be possible that he enchanted the weapon?xD
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: Tyler on June 15, 2010, 12:52:26 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPyqxhBR1g&feature=player_embedded
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: panic on June 15, 2010, 04:47:45 PM
nah in valkery gm forgot something that mages weapons normal have 33% and fighter 66%
and mages weapons have same 66% here soon ppl will make am+++ and server will be fail gm must fix it
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: JeEbok on June 15, 2010, 05:04:40 PM
Quote from: panic on June 15, 2010, 04:47:45 PM
nah in valkery gm forgot something that mages weapons normal have 33% and fighter 66%
and mages weapons have same 66% here soon ppl will make am+++ and server will be fail gm must fix it

tbh for me always is 50% 50%... u will fail or success : 2 options -> 50% on 50%
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: Thrinku on June 15, 2010, 05:10:13 PM
Quote from: JeEbok on June 15, 2010, 05:04:40 PM
tbh for me always is 50% 50%... u will fail or success : 2 options -> 50% on 50%
same like here
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: coyz on June 15, 2010, 08:12:02 PM
Quote from: panic on June 15, 2010, 04:47:45 PM
nah in valkery gm forgot something that mages weapons normal have 33% and fighter 66%
and mages weapons have same 66% here soon ppl will make am+++ and server will be fail gm must fix it
no not realy..
only dragon has\had 33% success for mage weapons, since retail rate is 66.66666666667% for ALL weapons
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: panic on June 15, 2010, 08:24:55 PM
Quote from: coyz on June 15, 2010, 08:12:02 PM
no not realy..
only dragon has\had 33% success for mage weapons, since retail rate is 66.66666666667% for ALL weapons
ok on retail is no substack/no mana pots/no emp pots/etc here is donator-network oh dragon-network~ random things
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: bourrin on June 15, 2010, 08:26:49 PM
was lower rate for mage weaons and armors but it was changed not long ago, on 15x u can find some jewels+10
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: magnitogorsk on June 15, 2010, 09:26:30 PM
Quote from: JeEbok on June 15, 2010, 05:04:40 PM
tbh for me always is 50% 50%... u will fail or success : 2 options -> 50% on 50%

Agreed, i spoked to a GM long ago, and i think is trustable, cause is an old friend of mine.He said then that till +15 is 50/50 chance.If they didn`t change it meanwhile.After +15 is applied the formula with 30 x 13 time in a row= 0.0015 bla bla chance
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: LegolasIII on June 15, 2010, 10:34:50 PM
well.. i think you got it wrong ^^ i dont want to sound like an idiot though.. so just a short version:

i also dont think the chance is 30% (or even 33%) cause lets be honest.. it is way too low.
if the chance till +15 is 50% this would change the "formula" to 0,5^12 * 0,3^x where x is the number of enchants you do above 15
(which still means the chance for +15 is 0,02%) mathematicly every 5000th try for making it from +0 to +15 succeds x) if someone finds mistakes he can keep them :P
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: magnitogorsk on June 15, 2010, 10:37:24 PM
Quote from: LegolasIII on June 15, 2010, 10:34:50 PM
well.. i think you got it wrong ^^ i dont want to sound like an idiot though.. so just a short version:

i also dont think the chance is 30% (or even 33%) cause lets be honest.. it is way too low.
if the chance till +15 is 50% this would change the "formula" to 0,5^12 * 0,3^x where x is the number of enchants you do above 15
(which still means the chance for +15 is 0,02%) mathematicly every 5000th try for making it from +0 to +15 succeds x) if someone finds mistakes he can keep them :P

guys, we are talking about mats in a video game, not wining the great prize at lotery.I doubt the mats in this game are matching what we know in real world  ;)
I only said what a GM told me.Must i name him?  ;D ;D
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: LegolasIII on June 15, 2010, 11:25:35 PM
so you want to say a 50% chance in a "video game" is a 80% chance in "reallife" ? :D i dont get it
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: Srecko on June 16, 2010, 07:51:45 AM
why are u discussing about math?
It can be only 1 way, and u cant have your 'opinion' that it is any other way. If u want to persuade someone in your point of view, u just look stupid.

U can discuss only server specific things, like if its 1/3, 1/2, or 2/3.
Title: Re: ihihi +15
Post by: loXol on June 16, 2010, 09:03:39 AM
go check from official

http://www.l2wh.com/

section tools > OE tools > OE succes stats

u will have some test, with attempts and proba

so in official it seems to be between 65 and 70%